Nintendo Switch are selling very well. Last march has sparked a bit of panic when the sales forecasts have been lowered, but in the end, the goal reached at the end of the third month, in the 2019 – however, the very good: almost thirty-five million consoles in a little over two years. Probably Nintendo, thinking of sottostimarlo (as it often does) has, on the contrary, overestimated the effect of Labo: in the past year was still a success, mainly thanks to Super Smash Bros., Ultimate, and Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!/Eevee!, added to the amount of games, some of exceptional quality, to be published in 2017. But Nintendo, it is evident, from the sales of the project Labo expected more: none of the four Kits, however, is able to break through.
In spite of this, the Switch has placed 17 million units during the fiscal year just ended and, according to Nintendo, should placing the other 18 by march 2020, so as to reach – in a little more than three years – 53 million copies. That would not be a record, but still a significant amount, that the posizionerebbe third in the home console Nintendo sold, after Wii and the NES; it’s not that Switch, properly home-cooked, in fact it is not. Maintaining this pace will exceed easily the Xbox One within the next fiscal year; at the present time, is selling more than the PlayStation 4 in Europe, more than double that of Sony’s console in the United States, and more than triple in Japan. Last year on the Nikkei appeared as a forecast of the sales that we had already commented to the times: according to some analysts, the Switch will reach 200 million copies by the end of its life cycle, becoming – consequently – the console most sold in the history. At the time there seemed to be a prediction optimistic, but that makes sense: we have not changed that opinion.
When Nintendo goes well, its sales projections tend to be rather conservative: not having yet communicated the arrival of the Lite edition, in march 2019 eighteen million expected over the next twelve months – had been seen as a signal of low ambition. And yet, now note the line-up and revealed the existence of Switch-Mini, called Lite, is really hard to believe that Nintendo does not give a large acceleration. Sales should remain strong until the winds of September – the rest soon to be released Fire Emblem: Three Houses – when will be published the new edition of the console, in conjunction with the remake of The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening. And already the size to be pocket-sized to one hundred percent, should be enough to provide a huge boost in japan, where Nintendo takes a long time: for decades now, at least there, the platforms mobile sell – widely – most of the fixed ones.
Next will come the monster that, we said, in times not suspects, you will have much more the success of the atypical predecessor: Pokémon, Sword, and Pokémon Shield, bundled with thelimited edition of Nintendo Switch Lite, you can reach numbers that the series Pokemon – Go to part – does not touch the days of the Game Boy Advance. Waiting to get their hands on the final version, we know that it is part of one of the sagas most sold of the history, and commercially it seems able to attract – and how – both the audience in the historical part of the audience lost on the road. It is not a case that the Switch has the The Legend of Zelda sold more, and soon, the Super Mario three-dimensional, and the Super Smash Bros. and more widespread: the installed base helps, but it also helps to have unified the utilities. For some, the killer app of the console can be Zelda, other Mario, for others it’s Pokémon: once all the episodes were on the same platform, now yes, and this factor generates a reaction in a holistic, non-negligible.
Switch and beyond
It will be very interesting to understand what will Nintendo from April 2020 onwards, when it has fired its best “cartridges portable”. At that point, will be out both Pokémon, Sword, Animal Crossing: New Horizons, the two heavyweights of the pocket world, which probably will have made a huge acceleration to the Nintendo Switch. From then on, perhaps for the first time in this century, the situation will be really difficult to predict. Why will be come out “all” the main games of the regular internal teams, this time, instead of having to make a fixed version and laptop of the same series, will have the time to create a sequel or, why not, a new saga. A lighthouse is represented by Metroid Prime 4, but it seems distant, to the point that the end of 2021 it seems to us the nearest date, rather than the farthest one; the other is the sequel to the Breath of the Wild, which was presented at E3 2019, which probably will come at christmas 2020 (who knows, maybe with the edition Pro of what, now, is the ecosystem of a Switch). In the middle, we have no idea what will happen. Definitely Pokémon, and Animal Crossing will also attract the interest of the software house historically attracted from the world portable (Atlus, for example), but to understand what is the focus Nintendo is complicated. We imagine that it will try to devise at least one other successful casual – after having tried to do it with a 1-2-Switch, and the Nintendo Labo – why, it would be essential to give you a boost “horizontal” to the platform, maybe when the cost of the same will be more low.
However, the most important game to give a further acceleration – once the thrust of Lite – would be an episode that is ambitious and triumphant, Super Mario Bros.: a Super Mario Bros. 5, a work that should be downright obvious, but on which they now believe little. Unfortunately, Nintendo doesn’t particularly like his brand more sold. In essence, as you can see, Switch has the potential to fit between the Nintendo Wii and the Nintendo DS, thus becoming the second platform is also the most fruitful in the history of the company kyotese. This should not be underestimated, as usual, that it makes little sense to compare this hybrid to a single console, previous: suffice it to say that the couple Wii-the DS has sold more than two hundred and fifty million units. Still it is not clear how it may influence on the final result, the next entry in the chinese market, so desired and so well received by analysts. One thing is certain: that it becomes “only” the second (or third) console, Nintendo’s best-selling ever, or that can surpass the DS, the Switch should make it clear to Furukawa that the user unified not coming back, and that is the real strength of the Switch, and the company itself. So you will be able to serenely face, and aggressively, or the future, even if, from the outset, it should be in streaming.